Phil, You Just Don’t Make Any Sense
Being up here in Madison, it has been hard to follow what has been going on in the Chicago Cubune the last few weeks. I subscribed once again to get it up here, but it hasn’t started coming yet. After reading Scott Reifert’s comment on his blog about the articles in today’s tribune, I immediately looked at the online version of today’s Tribune to see what all the fuss was about.
I have to say that it look’s like Phil Rogers had writer’s block yesterday and just decided to come up with some system that 1) doesn’t make any sense, and 2) 
looks at the wrong aspect of the playoffs. His column, "Method to predict madness: Phil Rogers’ new system of rating playoff contenders isn’t kind to the South Siders" is a sad addition to his overall stellar career at the Tribune.
The only thing that I see right in his whole analysis, is that lately teams that have gone into October hot, have stayed hot and advanced far into the playoffs. This has been very true, but Rogers more less just hints at this concept rather than using it as a point he is trying to make about who will do well in the playoffs. Rather, he talks about the "randomness" of teams advancing to the World Series. It’s not "random" for a team who is 36-10 in their last 46 games to continue to win in the playoffs and make the NLCS, as the Astros did last year.
I think that is the point Rogers is trying to make, but instead, it gets lost in his jumbled writing and comes out as him saying that we can only guess who will fair well because the most random will go all the way. If in fact Rogers is saying that the "hot" teams will play the best in October, then I don’t see why that doesn’t favor the Sox who are now 7-0 in September and play the Central division almost this whole month- a division they have completely dominated.
Now Rogers also wastes a huge portion of his column talking about this "system" he has made up to rank the contenders. This system is irrelevant to the playoffs because it bases the rankings on offense. Everyone knows that speed, defense, and especially pitching win in the playoffs. Also, saying that our 1-run record deceives our actually strength doesn’t matter either. Playoff games are tough, close games, where teams who struggle in 1-run games find ways to lose them, and teams who master 1-run games find ways to win them- ultimately with speed, defense, and pitching. Once again, I don’t see how that hurts the South Siders.
But in the end maybe all this criticism of the Sox’s chances will help us. After all, Rogers is trying to say that the teams who aren’t supposed to win in the playoffs do. So go ahead and keep telling us that we won’t win.
SOX PRIDE 